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The sinking of carbon fixed via net primary production (NPP) into the ocean interior is an important part of marine biogeochemical cycles. NPP measurements follow a log‐normal probability distribution, meaning NPP variations can be simply described by two parameters despite NPP's complexity. By analyzing a global database of open ocean particle fluxes, we show that this log‐normal probability distribution propagates into the variations of near‐seafloor fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC), calcium carbonate, and opal. Deep‐sea particle fluxes at subtropical and temperate time‐series sites follow the same log‐normal probability distribution, strongly suggesting the log‐normal description is robust and applies on multiple scales. This log‐normality implies that 29% of the highest measurements are responsible for 71% of the total near‐seafloor POC flux. We discuss possible causes for the dampening of variability from NPP to deep‐sea POC flux, and present an updated relationship predicting POC flux from mineral flux and depth.

Ocean warming ‘hotspots’ are regions characterized by above‐average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test‐beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal‐marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high‐resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenicCO₂‐driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature‐defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change inSSTis not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.